Britten Coyne Partners

Strategic Risk Governance and Management Experts

Monthly Global Macro Risk Forecasts

When it comes to strategic risk we are also practitioners, as well as advisors and educators. Through an affiliated company, we apply our methodologies to produce monthly global macro forecasts that are available on a subscription basis.

Each month The Index Investor identifies and reports new high value information (high likelihood indicators and surprises) in the areas that drive future changes in global macro conditions and risks (including technology, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, demographic and social issues, politics and financial markets).

We use this information to update the probability that the global macro system will be in one of four possible regimes over the next 12 and 36 months. These include the Normal Regime (when equity returns are highest), High Uncertainty, High Inflation, and Persistent Deflation. We also analyze the implications of our regime forecasts for asset class valuations and portfolio allocation.

“The main characteristic of dynamical systems is radical uncertainty…To succeed, we need to understand the difference between risks we can calculate and deep uncertainty that we cannot.”
— Wolfgang Munchau, Financial Times

"The ability to peer through seemingly impenetrable complexity and to identify underlying patterns and trends is richly rewarded when others remain confused or intimidated by the apparent inscrutability of it all, especially when that ability is coupled with a recognition that small changes can have a big impact when amplified throughout an interconnected system."
-- "The Complexity Trap", by Gallagher, et al, Parameters, US Army War College, Spring 2012 issue